Not So Simple After All

When I was writing my last blog, I was really tired; many of you noticed that, didn’t you? Brad had been having some serious medical problems – and that always wears me out trying to “fix” things, seemingly practicing medicine without a license!   🙂  But things are better now. Brad is feeling better. And now I can breathe!

Reading back over that blog entry, I realized I was guilty of trying to simplify a very complex situation, something you can never do when talking about casino programs. So now I am going to start over on the subject of figuring the EV of a video poker play.

Yes, this is a good starting point:

  1. Learn the EV of the game you want to play.
  2. Find the players club point value
  3. Add them together for the EV of the regular total play
  4. If there is a multiple-point bonus, add that to get the total play for “special days.”

However there are other factors you need to consider.  One of the most important details is the amount of bounce-back you can expect.  Unfortunately, that is not as big a factor as in years past. In the “good ol’ days” even casual players would find bounce-back amounts in their mailers large enough to motivate them to “bounce back” to the casino. Regular players, even at the lower denominations, could reap hundreds of dollars a month that would raise their play EV substantially.  Heavy and/or high-level players were getting amounts in the thousands of dollars, allowing them to turn low-EV games into positive EV plays.

There has not only been a major reduction of bounce-back amount across the board but also many casinos have switched their bounce-back program from the long-term consideration we players were used to – basing it exclusively on coin-in. We knew exactly how much bounce-back we would get if we put xxx amount of money through the machine. Now most casinos have gone to what I call the “blender” system, taking into consideration many other factors, most of which are unknown – and kept secret – to the players.  These could be your address, time on machine, type of machine played, number of playing sessions, etc., etc. One that can often be figured out by the players by keeping track of their play history is the win/loss factor.  But this knowledge is pretty useless since one can’t “control” whether they win or lose during any bounce-back qualification period.

Although players can’t depend on the bounce-back system as much as they used to, there are still many other ways to add to that starting-point list I gave above.  You can look for extras and I have spent a lot of time discussing these in my books and other writings down through the years:  couponing, tournaments, drawings, short-term players club promotions.  Although in the past we have never counted comps in our total play EV, referring to them as “gravy,” if you are very careful to not overvalue them, they are an extra you might want to add to your total.  And with the good play inventory decreasing all the time, we may want to do that in the future ourselves.

My next step in discussing how to evaluate a good play will be to give examples.  I’m working on this – takes a bit of research.  So that is what I will include in a blog entry in the near future.  Stay tuned!

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6 Responses to Not So Simple After All

  1. Mo says:

    Looking forward to the examples, glad Brad is feeling better which helps you feel better also.

    “EV” is when we do have health issues and the doctor clears you to fly and enjoy “Senior” buffets. (Enjoyment Value)
    MO

  2. Kevin Lewis says:

    Another addition to EV is what I call “earned comps,” where you get something for running X amount of coin-in through a machine. In that case, you figure out the EV of playing the best available machine for the required amount (usually a negative number) and add that to the value of the comp to get your net EV. You have to value the comp at its actual worth to you. For example, Old Fart Day is Wednesday at Coast Casinos. You can play $100 (to earn 100 points) and get a free dinner buffet. If I play the best machines–.25 NSUD at most Coasts–I can lose a theoretical 27 cents and get dinner for that. I would cheerfully pay $10 for, say, the Orleans buffet, so the play is worth $9.73 to me. In contrast, I can actually play $400 on FPDW at Sam’s Town (to earn 100 points at the reduced rate) and get a free dinner buffet, but I doubt I would pay more than fifteen cents to eat at that buffet, so the play is actually worth far less: The inherent EV of the play (about +$3) plus the worth of the (pretty bad) buffet.

  3. kirt mahlum says:

    When is your new book coming out?

  4. Steve Kallis says:

    The best news you have is that Brad’s health has improved. Now you can concentrate on insuring that your health and well being return to normal. It’s amazing the high you get when you get a major jackpot. This however is nothing compared to the high/relief you get when someone you love, returns to being healthy.

    God Bless you both.

  5. Bill Herndon says:

    Now I know twice as much about EV, this + MORE PROMOTION WARNINGS = Me

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