Using Math to Choose a VP Play – Part 1

I promised to give you examples and now I am going to do that. However, first I must emphasize that I am not saying math is the only factor you might want to consider when deciding when or where to play VP. Math is the main factor I consider, but you may have different goals that I do. You may put more emphasis on entertainment value, convenient locations, suitable scheduling – various other personal factors. I’m not here to judge your choices.

However, for everyone, knowing the math is the best place to START in looking for a new play or re-evaluating an old play that might have changed. Once you know the mathematical expected value (the EV) of a play or a group of possible plays, you will know how much money it will cost you to deviate from the mathematical “best” play.  Then you can make a knowledgeable decision if your reason for deviating is worth that much to you.

Let me give you a simple example. Let’s say you have the choice to play at two casinos: Casino A is two miles from your house and Casino B is 8 miles from your house. Let’s say the best game at Casino A is 8/5 Bonus (EV 99.1%); the best one at Casino B is NSUD (EV 99.7%).  Both have a .3% players club (you looked that up on vpFREE2!) They both are on single-line $1 machines, which is what you like to play – and you usually play about 10K coin-in a session in one day.

Here is your math (in the long term, as always):

Casino A

99.1% (8/5 Bonus)

.3%   (Club Point Value)

——–

99.4% (Total Play EV) – .6% (.006) Casino Edge X $10,000 = $60 loss per session

Casino B

99.7% (NSUD)

.3% (Club Point Value)

———

100% (Total Play EV) – no house edge – break-even play

But, Jean, you might say, there could be personal factors:

  • I like to play 8/5 Bonus much better than NSUD; I don’t like deuce games.
  • I never learned NSUD strategy, but I can use 9/6 JoB strategy which I know on 8/5 Bonus.
  • Casino A is so much closer and I hate to drive in heavy traffic to Casino B.
  • I’ve been going to Casino A a long time and I know a lot of the employees well. It seems like “home” there.  I’ve never gone to Casino B.
  • I like the choice of restaurants at Casino A better.

Things to think about if you choose Casino A:

  1.  Is it worth $60 a session to drive 6 miles to the further casino from your house, or to learn a new strategy, or to be flexible in some other areas?
  2. If you do this play once a week for a year, is losing an average of $3120 (52X$60) okay with you?

Whatever your decision, you can make it with the knowledge that you have considered the basic math facts.  Now, there are some other math factors that might enter into the scenario above that could affect your decision – and maybe even make Casino A the “best” choice.  Stay tuned for Part 2.

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8 Responses to Using Math to Choose a VP Play – Part 1

  1. Susan Johnson says:

    I can find 7/5 bonus progressive at home, Blue Chip in Indiana. When I go to Las Vegas, I only play full pay games, so most tourist casinos are out of the question. We went local when the Stardust starting cutting the pay tables and haven’t regretted it at all. The factors we consider are, paytables, free rooms and food offers. Where else can you go on vacation, stay and eat for free, and maybe go home with more money than you came with? All of this is due to you, Jean, and the Las Vegas Advisor gang. Thanks so much!

  2. Kevin Lewis says:

    The math should also include opportunity cost. If you want to drive those additional 6 miles, it could take half an hour if traffic is an issue. Of course, that would actually be 12 miles, or an hour, extra time to play at Casino B. So what is your time worth? If you think that you’re worth at least $15 an hour, then you’re “losing” $15 to go to Casino B, so the net gain is only $45 in your scenario. And of course, if you’re a quarter player, the decision is a toss-up: the cost of your entertainment is going to be $15 either way.

    One could also say that driving to Casino B to pick up and play $10 worth of free play would be a net monetary negative. Your time has value, and you get no benefit from time spent behind the wheel when you could have been doing something else (like eating a nice dinner at Casino A, inventing a cure for cancer, etc.).

  3. Jim W says:

    Great explanation. For locals it often gets more complicated. Any quick ideas for calculating drawing entries, food bonuses, tournament entries etc. into the equation. Thank you.

  4. bornloser1537 says:

    You might wish to perform a short-term ROR calculation for the two casinos and the amount of play you envision, rather than just looking at the theoretical EV. NSUD is a bit more “volatile” the 8/5 BP.

  5. Mo L says:

    Thanks Jean,
    Who ever said that using that MATH stuff in Algebra so LONG ago was useless must be laughing now that you have given such a great example!!!

    I think it was re quoted in a movie ” Peggy Sue Got Married”!!!!
    Mo

  6. diana thorpe says:

    Hi. I love that you remind people that we have different goals. When I’m alone or in Vegas, my goals are different than when I’m keeping my mom company. Mom loves playing 5-cent or 10-cent deuces of any kind and can’t remember correct strategy for anything these days. No problem. When I’m hanging out with mom, we’re playing bad pay tables. The pleasure she gets from any kind of deuces balances out the pain I get from looking at the pay table.

  7. Georgi S says:

    Great post, Jean ~ it really made things a lot more clear for me. Looking forward to Part 2!

  8. Frenchy says:

    It’s almost impossible to find any 8/5 machines anywhere. On the Strip, we stay with 7/5; it’s all we find (Bonus Poker). Even jacks or better offer nothing better. Our status is 7 Star at Caesar’s Resorts. We’re seriously looking at other casinos and their program offers. Does anyone know of a better program?

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