Using Math to Choose a VP Play – Part 2

Last week I gave examples of the basics – game EV + players club base points. However, that is rarely the end of the calculations for a wise player. Our financial success over the last 30+ years is largely due to the “extras” we add to that base.

Let’s talk about one of my favorite extras: multiple -point promotions. This is probably the easiest way to cut your losses and even gain an edge over the casino – and it is one of the most frequent promotions in Las Vegas and in other areas where there are multiple casinos competing for your business. Let’s say you have a choice between 9/6 JoB (99.5%) at Casino A and 8/5 Bonus (99.1%) at Casino B, both with a .1% players club. You might think the best rule is to play the highest EV game you can find. But the better rule is to look for the best play, which is the total of the game and the extra benefits.

Casino A (.1% players club base points)

99.5 % – JoB 9/6 (Best game)

+ .1% – Base points

99.6% – Total Play

—-

Casino B (.1% players club base points)

99.1 % – Bonus Poker 8/5

+ .7 % – 7x point promotion

99.8% – Total Play (Best play)

You could probably find umpteen variations of this example in Las Vegas locals casinos, especially on holidays when multiple-point promotions pop up all over town. Perhaps you scout around – or check on vpFREE2! – and find a NSU deuce game (99.7%) at a casino with a .1% players club that is giving 7x points! Add that up and you have found a play where you actually have an edge over the casino!

My other favorite major “extra” is bounce-back, when the casino gives you money (usually in the form of free play these days as opposed to cash in the good ol’ days!) to encourage you to come back and play in their casino. Back during the period of the “bounce-back wars” you might receive thousands of dollars of free play if you were a high-level player at big resort casinos. We collected big chunks of this, often with a percentage high enough to make “bad” paytables into positive plays because you didn’t get this “extra” if you were playing the “good” games.

These “bounce-back wars” are pretty much over these days in many places. Not only are many of the big resorts cutting this benefit drastically, even the casinos that catered to locals with a more low-level bounce-back range are often now cutting their amounts to a painful to-the-bone level. And some casinos are cutting out this “bounce-back” benefit completely. However, this is a benefit you still might find and I want to give you some help in figuring out the math to know how much it can add to the basics I’ve covered earlier. But this will take some explanation because it is not as cut-and-dried as they were.

Some of you who are criticizing that I am not covering “other factors,” remember I said at the first that this series is NOT for the player who is a pro or has been playing for a long time. You need to be patient. There are many new or inexperienced players who need to learn to walk before they can run. But in my next discussion I will talk about some of these “other factors” a player must consider in choosing a good play. And I will list some of the problems you might face in trying to figure out the value of many of these extras.

 

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2 Responses to Using Math to Choose a VP Play – Part 2

  1. Ed Mehnert says:

    Is there a forum/messageboard where ppl compare different properties bouncebacks? Or even how it is calculated, like i think some properties calculations are based off of quarterly coin in, while others are monthly.

  2. Hooked on QQ says:

    When I rattle off numbers & percentages(I’ve got a 40% chance of getting a 4OAK, DDB is a 98.98% percent game) to my family & friends(unfortunately also my wife), their eyes glaze over. They all think I’m a mathematical genius. What they don’t seem to get is I’m probably using 8th grade math.

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