This is the month that many video poker players look back over the figures from the previous year as they start working on their taxes. And if they lost – especially a lot or more than usual – they start wondering whether the casinos are “messing” with the machines so they don’t give you as many jackpots or good hands. So suddenly the Internet forums light up with spirited discussions about the randomness of casino VP machines.
The consensus (although not 100% of players subscribe to it) is that, although casinos could manipulate their VP machines so they aren’t random (after all they are just computers and can be programmed to do most anything), casinos in regulated jurisdictions would most likely not do this and risk their gaming licenses.
Chuck, a member on the vpFREE forum, gave me permission to quote from his post that discussed why many players, who don’t want to or can’t accept the volatility of video poker, will question the randomness of video poker. Here is how he and his wife has settled the matter for themselves:
“We have learned thru study, practice and experience that random produces quantifiable results that are always in conflict with our emotions, which produce only unrealized expectations. For example, we used to always expect to hit a royal flush when holding 4 to a Royal, but random has taught us it almost never happens. I never expect to hit a RF when holding only a king of hearts, but random has proved it can happen. I never expected to hit a 20k royal flush on my first night ever of playing VP in 2004 when I had only $60 in my pocket and foolishly placed it in a $5 machine, but random allowed it to happen. Our best wins have come when we least expect them and our worst losses came when we expected much more.
“Anyone who plays regularly will tell you they have seen just about every kind of hit, non-hit or close hit you can imagine and most love telling you about their most recent experience. My best story is about the time I was playing $1 Super Times Play at MGM and was dealt 4 to the RF with a 10 Times bonus. You know that my emotions said, “Yes, it has got to happen,” but random said “No it will not” – and it didn’t.
“By the way, all players of every game in the casino struggle with the same question of randomness, but usually only when they are losing and almost never when they are winning.”
It should be obvious to all who play video poker that the machines have been programmed to pay out less. Most of the higher percentage machines have been removed- or soon will be a thing of the past. And don’t forget about the server based machines that have been installed. Only an idiot would argue that a monumental case of “randomness” has come to all of the knowledgeable Video Poker players who have played for years.
No matter what the pay is it is still timing in most casinos. Milliseconds. Either you hit something or you don’t. Your practice of the game at hand helps to give you the best chance to hopefully get extended play and a full pay schedule would make that an even better chance of that happening. There are over 2.5 million possible combinations with a 52 card deck. I don’t know the break down for winning to losing hands but with the RNG it is still timing. Hit that deal button at the right time and if need be, hit that draw button at the right time. Cards constantly cycle in the RNG. So go steal that timing and hit a ROYAL!!!
The odds are stacked against u. I had been going to Fiesta Casino at Rancho when they were owned by the Maloofs. U had a reasonable chance to win or at least to play for an hour o two. Now the few times i go it’s a joke. I’m in and out in a half hour. This is with a$100 . I don’t know if they are losing business but they can’t be doing to well for what I have seen and heard.They have to be manipulating the VP because i play there and I am in and out in a half hour. At least some other Casinos (SOUTHPOINT, Rampart and Cosmopolitan) give u full pay and u can play for a couple of hours with a couple hundred dollars.
I myself feel I receive more quads on my tutorial here at home than I do in a casino session for the same period of time. Jean you’ve presented some of our opinions on the subject. Certainly you must have an opinion because you play so much. Do you think some casinos, especially the Nevada casinos, are manipulating the machines?
Actually, the poster posits the non-randomness not because she lost per se, but the way she lost–rapidly and with very few good hands. Most tellingly, she relates how the exact same card was drawn several times to the exact same initial hand. Obviously, her experience alone–however bizarre it may have been–constitutes insufficient sample size. The real lesson here is that in an unregulated jurisdiction, you can easily be cheated and often will.
For that matter, you have no real defense against being cheated in a heavily regulated jurisdiction. The arguments that this couldn’t possibly happen are pitifully weak. “Would” the casinos do this? Yes, they would, because they have already demonstrated that they have no moral scruples, no compunctions, time and time and time again. “Could” they do this? Yes, the mighty sword of the Gaming Control Commission never actually is wielded (no casino in Nevada has ever been even reprimanded, much less shut down, for cheating). “Will” they do this? If the bottom line is suffering, YES, THEY WILL. I have been cheated–blatantly, obviously–dozens of times, and certainly, dozens more times that I did not detect. (Mostly, at table games, but sometimes at VP.)
The above notwithstanding, even with a perfectly fair/random machine, a single person’s experiences in a short time cannot be an unequivocal indication of cheating. The sad fact is that it’s quite possible to have a terrible session on a “fair” machine. However, after a while, you may start to smell smoke. The most telling indicator is when things that are bizarre even in the short term, like what happened to the NCL poster, occur. The moral is to be aware that EVERY and ANY casino in the world CAN and WILL cheat you if it thinks it can get away with it, and you should never, never relax your guard. The odds of being cheated are fairly low, but so are the odds of being mugged, but you still don’t walk down a dark alleyway if you can help it.
A most timely article, not only because April is fast approaching, but also because of a current topic in both the VPFree and Harrahs forums: whether VP on board the NCL cruise ship Epic is truly random. A poster posits that it is not because she lost.