Bob Dancer just wrote a good article called “Would You Rather Be Lucky or Good?” (Read at http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2015/0630.cfm.) Coincidentally, Brad and I have just been pondering over – and having long discussions about – this same luck-vs-skill aspect of VP because of being in the middle of a losing streak from hell. In our 25+ years of playing video poker we have never before been in such a big hole.
You might say, “Oh, that’s not surprising – you are probably playing with a smaller edge than ever before!”
Well, that is one factor, but really a fairly small one. We still mostly stick to at least .5%- edge plays and our biggest plays give us a full 1% advantage. The biggest reason is that pesky factor in VP play – the domination of the royal flush jackpot. It seems we just can’t hit a royal even though much of our play is on multi-line. In the 7 months since December, 2014, we’ve hit only one $4000+ royal jackpot.
Compare that with the 7 months before that, with TWENTY royals, including one for 20k and one for a whopping 40k (thanks to a 10x multiplier). That made 2014 a near-record year for us, topped only by 2011 when we were even more over-royaled. In fact, I was going to write a blog with a gambling “financial report” at the end of 2014, talking about how one could still be a successful gambler in an age of declining good opportunities. However, I am glad I never got around to writing that or I would have blamed our subsequent bad “luck” on “bragging.”
The bottom line here is that the “long term” is not the same as the “IRS fiscal year.” And that is what is holding Brad and me steady – not going on tilt – during this terrible royal drought. Our nice yearly average profit figure over the last 30 years we have been gambling in casinos is a warm blanket we wrap ourselves in when the ice-cold royal winds seem to be never-ending.
However, we never forget that we must keep playing with an advantage to keep achieving our goal for long-term success. In my next blog I am going to give some specific examples of techniques we use in order to continue our long-term financial gambling achievement.
Has anyone noticed how often four to the royal is being dealt but not completed? My wife and I are probably rated as low roller one dollar VP players. We generally are either in Mesquite, NV or Las Vegas three to four times a month. We probably only run at max maybe One thousand a piece thorough the machines even on three day comped weekends. No matter where we play we will see at least three or four dealt four to the royal. We are more recreational players so we are probably the ones donating to the advantage players but we have managed to keep our head above water and enjoy our hobby. I am wondering if there has been a software change to deal so many four to the royals to try to up the play. We have been playing for around ten years and have never seen so many. In the past we probably completed seven or eight out of ten. This year is more like one out of thirty.
It’s interesting reading about other people’s royal droughts. I have always managed to eek out a profit every year, but one. I have always enjoyed the free rooms in Tahoe and Reno, but comp levels seems to be reduced for video poker players. My video poker play is limited to Lake Tahoe and the Reno area. Good video poker games have all but disappeared from the Tahoe area. Normally, I would be playing 9/6 job or 8/5 bonus poker at the quarter level. Montbleu recently downgraded all their 9/6 job and 8/5 bonus poker games. 2 years ago, I had 12 royals for the year, last year the number dropped to 11. This year, I got 2 quick royals during the first few days in January and nothing since then. I would be dealt 4 cards to the royal and then nothing. I average about 2 trips a month to Nevada and play about $60,000 coin in per month. For the first 6 months of the year, I’m down almost $7000 and headed to the worst playing year ever. I keep thinking that the next trip could end the drought, but it seems more of the same. I’ve talked to other video poker players in Tahoe and Reno and all say the same thing. Could there be a conspiracy? Who knows. Either way, I’m in a serious royal drought.
This is my profitable year so far, but I am banking the wins for the inevitable downturn. This is quite a hobby we have picked! When you are not lucky, you need to be smart.
Can you give an example of a game that would be( .5%- edge plays and our biggest plays give us a full 1% advantage)
Sometimes if I haven’t been to the casino in Vegas for a while, I forget the difference with the math, and only stick with the game I have been practicing at home.
Thanks, MO
Jean, last year was an amazing one for me, too, and my BR is not as large as yours and Brad’s. this year, also since December 2014 I’ve lost all coin tosses. by this I mean the following: Last year, when I was dealt 4 to the royal, I got the needed card over 70% of the time, thus making for a HUGE year. This year, all but a small handful of four to they royals result of NOTHING. This is also my worst year. I’ve spoken to so many peopel who are experiencing the same thing. Since none of us have changed how and what we play, this sample of gamblers has one commonality; no one is winning. Any thoughts? Can it be that varience caught up to every single one of us, only from December up to an including this very day, 7/10/15? I don’t think so. Varience isn’t this consistent, but changing the payback percentages is. However, can it be that ALL the chains in town are doing this in concert. I say no. But what else can explain the complete devastation to everyone (locals) I’ve spoken to? Maybe my compulsive record keeping (which arose since I read your Tax help for gamblers) will get me my money back if such a conspiracy is ever proven (NO, I’M NOT A CONSPIRACY THEORIST OR NUTCASE). JUst a compulsive gambler who was able to turn the compulsion into a profitable hobby unitll December 2014.