The desperate posts keep flooding my Inbox. Here are some excerpts:
This is the worst year I have had playing VP. I am so tired of losing.
I play mostly in A.C. and in Vegas a few times a year. I play only the best games I can find at the dollar level. A group of nine of us studied and practiced on software program. Because we all play nearly perfect, we were all able to win or at least stay close. For the last two years none of us have won so it sure seems to us that the casinos have made some adjustments. We understand the paytables have not changed but why can’t they have a chip with less hit frequency, say a royal hits every 45,000 hands instead of 40,000.
What am I doing wrong – I just can’t seem to hit a royal no matter how long I play or what game I play.
Oops, that last one was something I said to myself. Yes, Brad and I are in a long losing stretch ourselves. We have had only 3 royals this year – all Brad’s – and the last one in early April. (Actually I haven’t had one since last August!) If you think that this doesn’t sound so bad, remember that we both play regularly. However, we don’t play as many hours a week as we used to, especially me. And that is part of the problem. We play for “long term” results – and the more you play the faster you tend to trend toward the expected winning results if you play only when you have the advantage. When you don’t play as much, the losing stretches seem to last longer if you count the days, or weeks, or months. You get more realistic figures when you compare the number of play hours.
However, being in a losing stretch is never fun, whether you are a casual recreational player who plays once in awhile or a serious student of the game who plays almost every day. When you are in winning streak, you may not think about analyzing your play. However, when the losing spells come, you may start to have questions and doubts, like the people I quoted above. I suggest this is a time for “checking up,” and in the next few blog entries I am going to talk about some of the things you might be doing wrong and give suggestions for some right moves that may help your losing streaks be shorter.
However, I am going to give you one basic fact now that you must realize, no matter how hard it is to face: you can not be a long-term winner at VP unless you always play when you have the advantage. That means you must know the EV of the game you are playing, add up all extra benefits, and not play unless that total is over 100%.
Stay tuned. But in the meantime, I encourage you go back and read all the comments on the last few blogs I’ve written about VP. I don’t always agree 100% with every single comment, but they all give you something to think about. And many of them give helpful advice on how to win more and/or lose less.